Trade Recommendation

Expedia delivered objectively strong 2Q results as Vrbo returned to growth to exit the quarter, Brand Expedia grew bookings nearly 20% Y/Y, and B2B bookings grew 20%, all supporting 10% Y/Y nights growth in the quarter, 3% ahead of the Street, while also ahead of Buy-side pessimistic estimates. Our target price at $160 based on ~15.5x our 25 GAAP EPS estimates. More over Expedia's B2B portfolio is significantly undervalued in our view. We believe current strong wealth effect in middle class US households augurs well for Expedia’s core customer target. US retail sales has been holding well & US consumer spending has remained strong even at high real neutral rates. With Fed’s 50 bps cut and likely 125 cuts in total by Mar’25, we expect US consumer spending to remain resilient supported by strong wealth effect of US equities. Hence both from a macro & company specific point of view, Expedia looks well set to reach 160 levels from CMP of 144.

Trade Synopsis: Short Nvidia Trade Recommendation: Short Nvidia (CMP 126.57), TP 105 & SL 140. Introduction: Nvidia has been the darling of US equity market investors for past 1 year. The stock had climbed almost 200% in the past year alone. But the same break neck ascent now exposes itself to a time bound correction.

Trade Synopsis: Short S&P 500 at 5000,5100,5200 with allocation of capital at 25%/25%/50% at the respective levels. Trade Recommendation: Short S&P 500 at 5000/5100/5200 in 25%/25%/50% ratio of capital, TP 4690 & SL for entire trade at 5290. Risk reward roughly 1:2.

The Hang Seng Index (abbreviated: HSI, traditional Chinese:) is a freefloat-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index in Hong Kong. It is used to record and monitor daily changes of the largest companies of the Hong Kong stock market and is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong.